is there a conspiracy to keep the philippines from becoming a tiger economy?

(while about to sleep last night, i received this email from my evil twin sister mahatma gandha. at first i thought it was another chain letter, or letter to the editor protesting the fewer commercials on her favourite prime-time soap my husband's lover. but it's something else. it's another of her failed attempts of becoming a paula krugman. i never thought that mahatma gandha's frothy brain is capable of such deep economic thoughts. i am therefore sharing it to you.)

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yes, we can.
ever since i became a financial journalist (such a fancy title for someone who just talks to experts and write down their thoughts and pass them off as mine. chos) covering then president fidel v. ramos or fvr, a retired military general and one of the heroes of the edsa revolution in nineteen eighty six that ousted the dictator, his family and his cronies only to see them back several years later, it has been the government's goal to see the philippines become another tiger economy in the region like its more prosperous neighbors taiwan, south korea and malaysia.
in fairness to fvr, he did everything to make that seemingly impossible dream into reality. he adopted brave measures to bolster the economy.
first, by opening up major industries such as banking to foreign investors, resulting in the inflow of foreign funds into the country and helping boost the balance of payments that mitigated the negative impact of the huge outflow of dollars that went mostly to foreign creditors, a legacy of the twenty years of abuse and massive corruption during the reign of the dictatorship.
then fvr encouraged local companies and government-owned firms such as petron, the country's biggest oil refiner, to go public, spurring the so-called initial public offering boom in the ninety's. he also removed trade barriers including quotas and brought down tariff rates and forged trade alliances with other countries giving birth to afta (asean free trade area), the equivalent of nafta (north american free trade area), to encourage a freer flow of goods in and out of the country.
the former president also freed the oil industry from state regulation, removed government subsidies and allowed oil prices to be freely dictated by market forces.
the government also adopted measures to boost government revenue, manage spending and arrest the widening budget deficit. these measures resulted in budget surpluses, a first in so many years.
of course, fvr's travels overseas to sell the country were legendary. he forged as many trade and investment pacts with other countries that he could muster during his six year term.
all in the name of pushing the country to be among the brightest in the asia pacific region and remove its negative image as the basket case of asia. or worse, the sick man of asia.
for years, he succeeded. until the foreign exchange crisis in thailand, then known as the tom yum crisis, exploded that led to the flight of foreign funds in the region, leading to competitive devaluations.
just like that, the government's dream of becoming a roaring tiger lost its stripe.

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fast forward to two thousand and twelve. the philippines posted the second highest growth rate in asia next only to china, thanks to the remittances of filipinos toiling overseas as nurses, entertainers, seamen, bartenders, maids, teachers, laborers. their remittances, accounting for a tenth of the economy, boosted domestic consumption and encouraged businessmen to invest more on expansion, hire more workers, build more factories, shopping malls and condominiums.
the rating agencies joined the bandwagon. faster than the government can say overseas bond issuance, the country received rating upgrades to investment level (albeit just a notch above junk) from two international debt raters earlier this year. though me thinks the upgrades are useless. first we don't need the money to borrow overseas because we are experiencing strong inflows. second, domestic rates are near zero, so there is very little incentive to borrow overseas. third, after the rating agencies lost their credibility due to their failure to properly rate subprime bonds that triggered the credit crisis in the united states (it's more complicated than this), some investors no longer take these ratings seriously. the more sophisticated investors have their own way of assessing the country's or company's credit worthiness. but that's another story.

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right after the announcement of the strong two thousand and twelve growth figures, external forces tried to dampen foreign investors' enthusiasm in putting their capital into the country. we were engaged in political skirmishes with neighbors malaysia, china and taiwan. though i doubt if these issues had negative impact on the economy, they nevertheless caused some jitters in the country's stock, bond and currency markets.
then just a few weeks ago, the government announced that the economy posted the highest growth in the first quarter in asia, besting the once mighty and unbeatable china. me thinks this is the sweetest revenge for bullying us over the disputed territories.

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maybe i am being paranoid, but after the strong first quarter gdp data, no less than the powerful and influential federal reserves chairman hinted the gradual phase out of the us central bank's quantitative easing measures done mainly through prolonged near zero rates and the massive buying of government treasuries to pump more liquidity into the global financial markets that found their way into the philippine shores, propping up stocks and bonds, lowering domestic interest rates and inflating the peso.
bernanke's statement created paranoia among investors, both local and foreign. as a result, philippine stocks dropped, the peso weakened against the dollar, and bond prices fell. of course, other markets and currencies in asia pacific also experienced some weakness on worries about the direction of monetary policies in the united states.
add to this, the current political tensions with neighbors that led to the drop in tourist arrivals in the philippines remain. hong kong still has a travel ban to the country because of the luneta shooting a year or so ago, as well as taiwan.


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now, we've come to the meat of my post:
is there a conspiracy out there to keep the philippines from posting sustainable high growth rates over a longer period of time just like china? the prolonged high growth rates in china helped the former agricultural country become the second biggest economy in the world in such a short time, overtaking japan, and next only to the united states of obama.

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i could almost see some of you raising your eyebrows, thinking: what have you been smoking dahlin?
but consider this. if the philippines will continue to post strong growth over time, say in ten years more, this will result in the creation of more well paying jobs at home, boost the number of the middle class with considerable purchasing power. now let's see what will be its consequences:

- job and wealth creation. this will lead to the repatriation of filipinos working overseas, and the decline in the number of filipinos that will leave the country to work elsewhere. this will have dire consequences not just in those countries (there are so many of them) that are dependent on our cheap but highly skilled english-speaking labor force, but also on the global economy.
imagine those rich bankers, fund managers, businessmen, investors suddenly losing their factory workers, maids, tutors, drivers, cleaners, entertainers and part-time lovers?
this might lead to the collapse of the global economy, don't you think?

-influx of filipinos investing abroad, resulting in the filipinization of the global economy and the increase in our influence on the culture of other countries. can you imagine seeing a lot of last suppers, huge wooden spoons and forks displayed on every dining room in every mansion everywhere in the world. of children peppering their every sentences with "po" and "opo". of people buying jeepneys instead of rolls royce or jaguars. of them preferring adobo over steak or bacon.

-rise in the cost of living in the country, including education. that will prevent foreigners such as koreans from coming and staying in the philippines to study and hone their english skills, taking advantage of the cheap rent, food, tuition fees, transport costs, among others.

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there could be more dire consequences, but these are the only ones that i think would have the most significant impact globally.
so now you know why every time the philippines looks like it is about to fulfill its earlier promise for world domination, something funny happens along the way.

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that's all fairies, bitches, princesses, queens, pa-queens. have a lovely weekend.